To: Interested Parties
From: Rachel Jacobs and David Fox, Partners, Elias Law Group
Today, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Watson v. RNC, a case that could have major implications for the 2026 elections. RNC, the Mississippi Republican Party, and individual voters challenged Mississippi’s ballot receipt deadline in January 2024. Under Mississippi law, a voter’s mail-in ballot is counted if it is postmarked on or before Election Day and arrives within five business days of the election. The Republicans have alleged that this deadline extends the federal election past Election Day in violation of federal law. A ruling in the Republicans’ favor could impact the votes of millions of Americans who vote by mail across the country, as well as military and overseas voters around the world.
The Republicans are not shy about their motive here. Their original complaint highlighted that “mail-in ballots from Democratic voters also tend to arrive late.” And they believe that “[c]ounting mail-in ballots received after Election Day doesn’t just dilute the valid ballots—it specifically and disproportionately harms Republican candidates and voters.”
It is unclear how the Supreme Court will rule, but we expect a decision by early July. At argument, the Justices seemed divided along largely ideological lines, and the three Justices towards the Court’s center were somewhat hard to read. Based on the argument, the Chief Justice seems likely to be the dispositive vote, and he said very little.
This case has the potential to impact millions of voters in 2026. Specifically, many other states have laws similar to the law on the books in Mississippi (where ballots are counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day). These states include: Alaska, California, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia. The District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands also have a post-election receipt deadline. Further, there are additional states that have a post-election receipt deadline for uniformed military and overseas voters only, who would also potentially be impacted by a ruling in favor of the Republicans here including: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Utah.
Questions at argument also alluded to possible continuing efforts to challenge state laws that in some circumstances accept ballots without a postmark, including Nevada and Illinois, even if the Supreme Court upholds Mississippi’s law. Questioning also made clear that at least some Justices would be open to broader challenges to (a) early voting, and (b) laws under which absentee ballots are processed and verified after Election Day, including signature matching and cure.
Elias Law Group will monitor the Supreme Court’s decisions as we near the end of the current term and provide updates as necessary. In the meantime, if you have any questions about today’s oral argument or how this case could impact the 2026 elections or your activities, please reach out.